Forecasting and The Hired Gun

Forecasting Writing Income OUT of the Budget

My love of Excel spreadsheets is well known in my family. My husband and child both roll their eyes when I say, “So I’ve been crunching some numbers.”

But it is reassuring to me to do it, for a couple of reasons.

  1. I’m a planner by nature. Not one of those who is so regimented that a deviation in schedule will throw me off, but one who wants to have an idea of where I will be next year, five years from now, and at retirement age.
  2. Seeing the plans, knowing the numbers, it helps me understand what we are capable of accomplishing and what I can do within those confines.

So I run “what if” scenarios. For example…

“What if I never make any serious money writing? And in combination with that, what if I decided that in December 2021, after both of the Cottages have been renovated, I decided not to clean houses any longer.

Rather specific, but there you go.

My goal was to remove the need or the expectation of writing income from the budget and follow down that path to see if we would still be okay.

With the addition of other future rental properties in our repertoire, along with the funds to purchase them and maintain them, the answer was most certainly yes.

And I listed out every possible expense, from property insurance, to income taxes, property taxes, vacancy rate, and a generous repair budget.

My numbers are always liberal on the expense side and conservative on the income side – extra padding if you will for life’s ups and downs.

And about this time you are wondering what in the hell this has to do with writing.

For me? It has everything to do with it. Here’s what happens to me when I don’t know if there is enough money or how we will afford something…

  1. Can we afford xyz? I’m not sure if we can! How can I write? I need to figure this out!
  2. Okay, we can afford xyz, but I really think I need to assign some kind of potential income in [six months/a year/whatever] to writing income. It’s time it pays for itself!
  3. Okay, writing income is now on the budget. [stares at budget] Oh god, how am I going to make that goal? I know, I know, I need to write more, write different stuff, raise my prices, change my bio, fix my descriptions, run an ad, learn copywriting, and, and…
  4. [stares at blank screen] There’s so much to do, I don’t know where to start. But I had better get on it because it will be [six months/a year/whatever] soon. And I’ve got a budget to meet.
  5. I’ve written nothing. I’ve sold nothing. I’m doing this all wrong. [walks away from computer without writing anything].

It circles and spirals and generally degrades from there.

If I take the potential profit out of it, I think it will allow me to focus on the craft, farm out the crap I can’t figure out, and eventually be successful. To know that I don’t need the writing to be profitable frees my heart like you would not believe.

The Hired Gun

I listen to several podcasts a week while I clean houses. One was covering common myths that many authors believe – never talk about your work because others will steal your ideas (that made me laugh), Indie authors aren’t real authors (tell that to Andy Weir and Hugh Howey), and one that made me think – never post your book chapters on your website.

That last one? That is exactly the opposite of what Andy Weir, author of The Martian (yeah, the one that got turned into a movie) did. Instead of being afraid to give away his work, he actually posted it chapter by chapter, turning finally to Amazon when his readers pushed him to put it in a form they could download – like Kindle.

And after the book took off, that is when a publisher approached him and waved a ridiculously fat check in his direction. But I digress.

I decided to put The Hired Gun on this site, chapter by chapter, and just entertain my readers. Later, once it is done, I’ll give it a good round of edits, convert it into a book, and publish it through Amazon and other ebook sites, as well as CreateSpace.

I hope you will read each of the installments and be sure to comment. I like feedback, positive or negative, as they help me become a better writer, one worth reading.

Here is the link to the first chapter.

If you are interested in receiving regular updates, I’ll send one out whenever a new chapter is up, sign up with this list here. This is my ARC (Advanced Reader Copy) list, which is different from the newsletter list. I restrict my emails to my newsletter list to once per month. The Advanced Reader Copy list, however, will send an email any time there is something new to read.

You Get What You Pay For

I just started listening to the Sell More Books Show podcast which is co-hosted by Bryan Cohen. I quickly learned that he also runs a business writing book blurbs and that I had just missed the sale (darn it!) of $40 off a book blurb description.

I checked out his website and backed away from the $197 purchase price, even though it included not just a book blurb but two social media ads (something else I suck at).

I went to Fiverr, found a guy who had over 100 positive comments and chose the least expensive package. He was a nice guy, don’t get me wrong, but I should have seen the writing on the wall when his bio said, “Why hire an expert when you can get an amateur for less?”

His first attempt was bad. I had spent all of $11 and replied to him that he was overusing words (he had used the word “which” three times in the space of two sentences, and that I was looking for less of a plot outline and more of a teaser that lassoed folks in and ensured they would press the “buy” button on Gliese 581: The Departure. I told him that I wasn’t going to demand a rewrite, but that I couldn’t see using the blurb as presented.

Like I said, he was a nice guy and he offered to give it another go. The second attempt was even worse. Nightmarishly so. I clicked “Accept Order” and left private feedback that only Fiverr could see letting them know he did not know his craft, not at all, and skipped leaving negative feedback publicly. I didn’t want to offend him, but damn his work really sucked.

And today I clicked the “Buy Now” button for Bryan Cohen’s Best Page Forward book blurb. It’s going to take four weeks. I’ll let you know if it is worth it.

Best Cover Possible?

Meanwhile, I’m considering yet another re-design of the cover for War’s End: The Storm and then it’s sequel, War’s End: A Brave New World.

When it comes to Kindle Unlimited, the War’s End series pulls in around 60% of my page read income. Yet the sales for these books in ebook (non-Kindle Unlimited readers) and paperback formats is flat.

The page reads totals indicate that pretty much everyone who reads War’s End: The Storm goes on to read the sequel, War’s End: A Brave New World. So it’s keeping the readers interest for the entirety of the two 200+ page books. But it isn’t selling anywhere else. I’m guessing that I need to fix the cover and probably the book blurb.